SHFE Tin Fluctuated and Strengthened on the First Trading Day After the Holiday, SHFE and LME Rose in Sync, High-Price Demand Remained Cautious [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of January 5, 2026, the most-traded SHFE tin 2602 contract showed an upward fluctuation on the first trading day after the holiday, closing at 334,490 yuan/mt during the midday break, up 8,120 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price, a gain of 2.49%. It hit a session high of 335,260 yuan/mt, with a trading volume of 110,000 lots. After a significant pre-holiday pullback, futures prices held up well today, supported by a temporary tightening of spot circulation following the completion of mainstream deliveries to warehouses. LME tin electronic trading also strengthened, quoted at $42,300/mt, up 5.09%, indicating a synchronized rise in both the SHFE and LME markets.

Currently, the actual supply and demand in the tin market are generally stable. Supply side, Myanmar's refined ore imports rebounded to 1,300 mt in metal content in November, reflecting some recovery in Wa State supply, although some mining constraints remain unresolved, making it difficult to return to the previous level of 3,000 mt per month in the short term. Indonesia's exports rose to 7,459 mt in November, mainly relying on inventory drawdowns. Based on the total trading volume on JFX and IDCX in December, exports are expected to be around 5,500 mt for that month.

Demand side, a new round of national subsidy policies for consumer goods officially started on January 1, with strong policy continuity, helping to stabilize medium and long-term consumption expectations. However, post-holiday demand has not fully recovered yet, tin prices remain at historically high levels, and downstream purchasing is still primarily order-driven, with buyers generally maintaining a cautious order-following strategy. Although prices fluctuated upward today, the market only saw the release of some essential post-holiday orders, and the overall inquiry atmosphere remained mediocre, indicating that high prices continue to significantly suppress actual transactions.